{
  "_meta": {
    "version": "v3",
    "model": "Monte Carlo bootstrap over per-week issues_completed from rocketrez-labs.com/dev-metrics",
    "samples": 5000,
    "q3Weeks": 13,
    "weekAlignment": "Saturday-Friday",
    "source": "https://rocketrez-labs.com/dev-metrics/trend-data.json (RocketRez/dev-status-bot)",
    "generatedAt": "2026-04-30T20:18:25.322255+00:00",
    "tshirtIssues": {
      "XS": 1,
      "S": 3,
      "M": 10,
      "L": 25,
      "XL": 60
    },
    "podTeamMap": {
      "origin": [
        "origin-team",
        "ro"
      ],
      "orion": [
        "orion-team"
      ],
      "reporting": [
        "reporting",
        "reporting-team"
      ]
    },
    "forecastQuarter": "2026 Q3 (Jul-Sep), 13 weeks",
    "assumptions": [
      "Capacity unit = Jira issues_completed per Saturday-Friday week (per dev-status-bot)",
      "Per-pod weekly throughput sampled with replacement over 42 historical weeks",
      "Q3 forecast = sum of 13 weekly samples, repeated 5,000 times",
      "T-shirt \u2192 issue counts (XS=1, S=3, M=10, L=25, XL=60)",
      "KTLO baseline = avg bugs_resolved per week \u00d7 13 (proxy for ongoing fix load)"
    ]
  },
  "pods": {
    "origin": {
      "teamIds": [
        "origin-team",
        "ro"
      ],
      "weeklyHistory": [
        {
          "week_end": "2025-07-11",
          "issues_completed": 14
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-07-18",
          "issues_completed": 20
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-07-25",
          "issues_completed": 30
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-01",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-08",
          "issues_completed": 22
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-15",
          "issues_completed": 3
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-22",
          "issues_completed": 19
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-29",
          "issues_completed": 7
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-09-05",
          "issues_completed": 17
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-09-12",
          "issues_completed": 15
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-09-19",
          "issues_completed": 9
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-09-26",
          "issues_completed": 20
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-03",
          "issues_completed": 25
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-10",
          "issues_completed": 15
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-17",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-24",
          "issues_completed": 14
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-31",
          "issues_completed": 31
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-11-07",
          "issues_completed": 9
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-11-14",
          "issues_completed": 14
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-11-21",
          "issues_completed": 10
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-11-28",
          "issues_completed": 17
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-12-05",
          "issues_completed": 24
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-12-12",
          "issues_completed": 11
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-12-19",
          "issues_completed": 17
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-12-26",
          "issues_completed": 4
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-02",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-09",
          "issues_completed": 30
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-16",
          "issues_completed": 18
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-23",
          "issues_completed": 28
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-30",
          "issues_completed": 36
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-02-06",
          "issues_completed": 28
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-02-13",
          "issues_completed": 13
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-02-20",
          "issues_completed": 18
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-02-27",
          "issues_completed": 19
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-03-06",
          "issues_completed": 14
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-03-13",
          "issues_completed": 23
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-03-20",
          "issues_completed": 29
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-03-27",
          "issues_completed": 22
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-04-03",
          "issues_completed": 21
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-04-10",
          "issues_completed": 35
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-04-17",
          "issues_completed": 31
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-04-24",
          "issues_completed": 61
        }
      ],
      "monthlyStats": {
        "n": 42,
        "min": 1,
        "max": 61,
        "mean": 19.0,
        "median": 18,
        "stdev": 11.4
      },
      "q3CapacityForecast": {
        "P5": 185.0,
        "P25": 219.8,
        "P50": 244.0,
        "P75": 273.0,
        "P95": 316.0
      },
      "q3KtloForecastP50": 80.9,
      "roadmapDemand": {
        "totalIssues": 70.5,
        "items": [
          {
            "title": "PCI DSS 6.4.3 CSP P1 (tail)",
            "size": "L",
            "q3_share": 0.4,
            "ticket": "RX-7976",
            "issues_q3": 10.0
          },
          {
            "title": "Toast Phase 1 (completion)",
            "size": "L",
            "q3_share": 0.5,
            "ticket": "RX-7403",
            "issues_q3": 12.5
          },
          {
            "title": "Family Memberships (continuing)",
            "size": "XL",
            "q3_share": 0.3,
            "ticket": "RX-6803",
            "issues_q3": 18.0
          },
          {
            "title": "Gifting / Deferred Activation",
            "size": "L",
            "q3_share": 0.6,
            "ticket": "RX-7059",
            "issues_q3": 15.0
          },
          {
            "title": "Insights V2 follow-on",
            "size": "M",
            "q3_share": 0.5,
            "ticket": "RX-8005",
            "issues_q3": 5.0
          },
          {
            "title": "Release cadence (3.85-3.87)",
            "size": "M",
            "q3_share": 1.0,
            "ticket": null,
            "issues_q3": 10.0
          }
        ]
      },
      "totalDemand": 151.4,
      "bandwidthAtPercentile": {
        "P5": 33.6,
        "P25": 68.4,
        "P50": 92.6,
        "P75": 121.6,
        "P95": 164.6
      },
      "probabilityMeetsCommit": 0.996,
      "headroomPctP50": 38,
      "verdict": "Substantial bandwidth available"
    },
    "orion": {
      "teamIds": [
        "orion-team"
      ],
      "weeklyHistory": [
        {
          "week_end": "2025-07-11",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-07-18",
          "issues_completed": 13
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-01",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-08",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-15",
          "issues_completed": 36
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-22",
          "issues_completed": 8
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-29",
          "issues_completed": 11
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-09-05",
          "issues_completed": 5
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-09-12",
          "issues_completed": 11
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-09-19",
          "issues_completed": 10
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-09-26",
          "issues_completed": 10
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-03",
          "issues_completed": 14
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-10",
          "issues_completed": 8
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-17",
          "issues_completed": 11
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-24",
          "issues_completed": 16
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-31",
          "issues_completed": 23
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-11-07",
          "issues_completed": 36
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-11-14",
          "issues_completed": 14
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-11-21",
          "issues_completed": 8
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-11-28",
          "issues_completed": 19
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-12-05",
          "issues_completed": 11
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-12-12",
          "issues_completed": 10
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-12-19",
          "issues_completed": 2
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-12-26",
          "issues_completed": 35
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-02",
          "issues_completed": 12
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-09",
          "issues_completed": 15
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-16",
          "issues_completed": 40
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-23",
          "issues_completed": 11
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-30",
          "issues_completed": 45
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-02-06",
          "issues_completed": 31
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-02-13",
          "issues_completed": 6
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-02-20",
          "issues_completed": 13
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-02-27",
          "issues_completed": 21
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-03-06",
          "issues_completed": 45
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-03-13",
          "issues_completed": 20
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-03-20",
          "issues_completed": 29
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-03-27",
          "issues_completed": 48
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-04-03",
          "issues_completed": 44
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-04-10",
          "issues_completed": 25
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-04-17",
          "issues_completed": 36
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-04-24",
          "issues_completed": 41
        }
      ],
      "monthlyStats": {
        "n": 41,
        "min": 1,
        "max": 48,
        "mean": 19.4,
        "median": 14,
        "stdev": 14.1
      },
      "q3CapacityForecast": {
        "P5": 172.0,
        "P25": 217.0,
        "P50": 251.0,
        "P75": 286.0,
        "P95": 336.0
      },
      "q3KtloForecastP50": 66.7,
      "roadmapDemand": {
        "totalIssues": 71.5,
        "items": [
          {
            "title": "Operate Mariner's + waterparks",
            "size": "L",
            "q3_share": 1.0,
            "ticket": null,
            "issues_q3": 25.0
          },
          {
            "title": "Membership Activation (completion)",
            "size": "L",
            "q3_share": 0.5,
            "ticket": "ORI-1702",
            "issues_q3": 12.5
          },
          {
            "title": "Gift Card + Refund Waterfall",
            "size": "M",
            "q3_share": 0.6,
            "ticket": "ORI-1500",
            "issues_q3": 6.0
          },
          {
            "title": "AM/PM pass support",
            "size": "M",
            "q3_share": 0.8,
            "ticket": "ORI-1514",
            "issues_q3": 8.0
          },
          {
            "title": "Membership photo capture",
            "size": "M",
            "q3_share": 0.6,
            "ticket": "ORI-1781",
            "issues_q3": 6.0
          },
          {
            "title": "Admin terminal management UI",
            "size": "M",
            "q3_share": 0.7,
            "ticket": "ORI-1095",
            "issues_q3": 7.0
          },
          {
            "title": "E2E test automation expansion",
            "size": "M",
            "q3_share": 0.7,
            "ticket": null,
            "issues_q3": 7.0
          }
        ]
      },
      "totalDemand": 138.2,
      "bandwidthAtPercentile": {
        "P5": 33.8,
        "P25": 78.8,
        "P50": 112.8,
        "P75": 147.8,
        "P95": 197.8
      },
      "probabilityMeetsCommit": 0.992,
      "headroomPctP50": 45,
      "verdict": "Substantial bandwidth available"
    },
    "reporting": {
      "teamIds": [
        "reporting",
        "reporting-team"
      ],
      "weeklyHistory": [
        {
          "week_end": "2025-07-11",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-07-18",
          "issues_completed": 0
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-07-25",
          "issues_completed": 2
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-01",
          "issues_completed": 3
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-08",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-15",
          "issues_completed": 7
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-08-22",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-09-05",
          "issues_completed": 2
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-09-12",
          "issues_completed": 4
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-09-19",
          "issues_completed": 3
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-09-26",
          "issues_completed": 5
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-03",
          "issues_completed": 2
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-10",
          "issues_completed": 6
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-17",
          "issues_completed": 0
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-24",
          "issues_completed": 4
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-10-31",
          "issues_completed": 5
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-11-07",
          "issues_completed": 4
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-11-14",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-11-21",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-11-28",
          "issues_completed": 8
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-12-05",
          "issues_completed": 3
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-12-12",
          "issues_completed": 3
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-12-19",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2025-12-26",
          "issues_completed": 6
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-02",
          "issues_completed": 0
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-09",
          "issues_completed": 2
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-16",
          "issues_completed": 3
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-23",
          "issues_completed": 4
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-01-30",
          "issues_completed": 9
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-02-06",
          "issues_completed": 4
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-02-13",
          "issues_completed": 6
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-02-20",
          "issues_completed": 5
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-02-27",
          "issues_completed": 3
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-03-06",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-03-13",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-03-20",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-03-27",
          "issues_completed": 3
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-04-03",
          "issues_completed": 1
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-04-10",
          "issues_completed": 12
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-04-17",
          "issues_completed": 3
        },
        {
          "week_end": "2026-04-24",
          "issues_completed": 2
        }
      ],
      "monthlyStats": {
        "n": 41,
        "min": 0,
        "max": 12,
        "mean": 3.2,
        "median": 3,
        "stdev": 2.6
      },
      "q3CapacityForecast": {
        "P5": 28.0,
        "P25": 35.0,
        "P50": 41.0,
        "P75": 48.0,
        "P95": 59.0
      },
      "q3KtloForecastP50": 16.6,
      "roadmapDemand": {
        "totalIssues": 54.5,
        "items": [
          {
            "title": "RM3 Power BI (completion)",
            "size": "L",
            "q3_share": 0.5,
            "ticket": "RX-6890",
            "issues_q3": 12.5
          },
          {
            "title": "RM4 Telerik migration (kickoff)",
            "size": "XL",
            "q3_share": 0.25,
            "ticket": "RX-6891",
            "issues_q3": 15.0
          },
          {
            "title": "Stripe Payments ODS",
            "size": "M",
            "q3_share": 0.7,
            "ticket": "RX-7337",
            "issues_q3": 7.0
          },
          {
            "title": "Mission Control expansion",
            "size": "L",
            "q3_share": 0.4,
            "ticket": "RX-6319",
            "issues_q3": 10.0
          },
          {
            "title": "Customer report mods (steady)",
            "size": "M",
            "q3_share": 1.0,
            "ticket": null,
            "issues_q3": 10.0
          }
        ]
      },
      "totalDemand": 71.1,
      "bandwidthAtPercentile": {
        "P5": -43.1,
        "P25": -36.1,
        "P50": -30.1,
        "P75": -23.1,
        "P95": -12.1
      },
      "probabilityMeetsCommit": 0.003,
      "headroomPctP50": -73,
      "verdict": "Likely overcommitted"
    }
  }
}